Top Picks from the Director of Research

 

By guest author Irina Fan.

With confidence set to rebound, a strong recovery in Hong Kong’s exports is expected in the second half of this year. As testament to this, the latest HKTDC Export Index tracks growing optimism across all sectors and most of the major export markets. In specific terms, the Index was up 6.2 points to 30.9 for 2Q 2022, its first rally in a year. This is a sure sign that local businesses have begun to regain confidence in the city’s export outlook, a sentiment driven by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic gradually subsiding, while supply chain disruptions and logistics bottlenecks are also showing signs of easing. In terms of markets, Asia continues to be viewed as the most promising, while Europe is now perceived as the most improved. Full details of the survey, along with an in-depth analysis of its implications, can be found here: HKTDC Export Index 2Q22: First Rally in Exporter Confidence for 12 Months,

Partly on account of the more upbeat tone of its 2Q22 Export Index, the HKTDC has opted to keep its 2022 overall exports forecast unchanged at 8%. This decision reflects the fact that Hong Kong’s exports to many of its major markets have registered strong growth, even though its exports to the mainland have not reached the level anticipated. This, however, is expected to change in the second half of the year, with increasing cross-border cargo flows and the resumption of manufacturing set to deliver a significant recovery. In addition, many Hong Kong traders are also well-positioned to benefit from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an agreement that came into effect at the beginning of the year. Amid all this, however, it is important to remember that traders are facing rising cost pressures. With it entirely possible that any growth in total export value may largely be down to cost-induced price rises, driving volume growth could be the real challenge. The full report, complete with in-depth analysis, can be found here: 2022 Mid-Year Export Review: 2022 Mid-Year Export Review: Strong Rebound Anticipated Before Year-End.

www.hktdc.com