Cotton Production Is Poised for Full Recovery with a 6 % Increase expected for 2021/22
Executive Summary
Highlights from the November 2021 Cotton This Month include:
- World production is poised to show a 6 % year-over-year increase vs 2020/21
- The surge is being led by three of the world’s top five producers: USA, Brazil and Pakistan
- West Africa is poised to post an amazing 48 % increase vs the prior season
Production Is Poised for Full Recovery with a 6% Increase Expected for 2021/22
To say the 202/21 season was disappointing for the cotton industry is a major understatement, given the mayhem and confusion that occurred when the Covid-19 virus ground the global supply chain to a halt.
While it would be naïve to say things are back to normal — only about 3% of people in less-developed countries have been vaccinated, far behind those in richer countries — there are some signs that the recovery is in full swing.
Three of the world’s top five producers (Brazil, Pakistan and the USA) are showing increases in production vs 2020/21 and while that won’t quite bring things back to ‘normal’, it is a sign that the industry’s recovery is still in full swing. Current projections show an increase of 6% in global production in 2021/22 vs the prior season.
Nowhere is that more evident than in West Africa, where all countries are reporting production increases, with the region being up nearly 48% vs the 2020/21 season.
The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 87 cents to 126 cents, with a midpoint at 104.26 cents per pound.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices.
Please contact the author, ICAC Data Scientist Matthew Looney, with questions on this report.
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. In addition, members can take advantage of the ICAC’s global network of cotton researchers, whose expertise covers the supply chain from farm to textile manufacturing, and have free access to its cutting-edge technologies like the voice-based app and virtual technology cotton training programme. Committed to ensuring cotton’s continued sustainability, the ICAC is the only intergovernmental commodity body covering cotton that is recognised by the United Nations. For more information, please visit www.icac.org, .