ICAC: Revival Expected in World Cotton Production in 2021/22 Season

Executive Summary

Highlights from the August 2021 Cotton This Month include:

•             Global production is expected to increase by 3% to 25 million tonnes in 2021/22

•             Consumption posted a 12.4 % increase to 25.5 million tonnes in 2020/21, with a similar performance expected in 2021/22

•             Concerns remain due to Covid-19’s stubbornness, with threats from factory closings and logistical problems looming in Bangladesh and Vietnam

Revival Expected in World Cotton Production in 2021/22 Season

The coronavirus might have won the battle in 2020/21, driving down global cotton production to 24.2 million tonnes, a decline of 7 % from the season before. But the industry is responding well and production is expected to rise by 3 % in 2021/22 to reach 25 million tonnes.

The increase will be led by:

1.           The USA, which is projected to reach 3.8 million tonnes, up 22 % from the season before,

2.           India, whose production is expected to remain high in 2021/22 (5.9 million tonnes), and

3.           Brazil, which hasn’t publicly announced its production area and forecasts yet because sowing won’t begin until November but still should reach about 2.3 million tonnes.

On the bright side, global cotton consumption and trade have seen a welcome recovery in the 2020/21 season, with consumption increasing by 12.4 % to reach 25.5 million tonnes, with a similar trajectory projected for 2021/22. But Covid-19 has proven itself to be very stubborn; recent reports from Bangladesh and Vietnam indicates that Covid infections are on the rise, so lockdown-induced factory closures and shipping problems are still major threats, leaving manufacturers scrambling to fill their orders.

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2021/22 ranges from 73 US cents to 125 cents, with a midpoint at 95.43 cents per pound.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on  August 16, 2021. The next Cotton This Month will be released on September 1, 2021
 
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Please contact the author, Ms Parkhi Vats, with questions on this report.

Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. The ICAC does not have a role in setting market prices or in intervening in market mechanisms. For more information, please visit www.icac.org