USDA Brazil Cotton: MY 2020/21 Production Revised Down on Lower Yield Prospects

Brazil’s marketing year (MY) 2020/21 cotton production is estimated at 10.8 million 480-pound bales, lower by 0.5 million bales (4 percent) from last month, and down 3.1 million bales (22 percent) from the 2019/20 record production. Harvested cotton area is estimated at 1.4 million hectares (mha), lower by 0.03 mha (2 percent) from last month, and 18 percent below last season. Cotton yield is estimated at 1,708 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha), 4 percent above the 5-year average of 1,642 kg/ha.

In Mato Grosso (69 % of production), dryness has persisted from April through June. This has negatively impacted the cotton crop, particularly when moisture was needed at reproductive stages. Regional differences in the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicate lower vegetation vigor in the southeastern region versus the central and northern regions of Mato Grosso. Harvest started in both Mato Grosso and Bahia (accounting for 20 % of national production). Currently, about 7 % of the crop is harvested, and harvest will continue through September.