OECD CLIs point to a moderation in growth

OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for September continue to recover from the Covid-19 crisis lows, but at a moderating pace.

For all major OECD economies, the CLIs in September continue to signal that GDP will remain below trend.

While in France and Germany the CLIs are now pointing to a stabilisation in growth, in the United States,

Japan, United Kingdom, Canada and Italy they continue to point to a moderation in growth.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for India and Russia continue to signal moderating growth. This

is now also the assessment for Brazil (albeit with the level of GDP expected to be above trend). In China, the

CLI (for manufacturing) points to a stabilisation in growth.

With the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in many countries, there remains considerable uncertainty around the

possibility of future mitigation measures that may curtail economic activity, and which may not be fully factored

into current indicators used in the construction of the CLIs. As such this month’s CLIs should continue to be

interpreted with care.

As always, the magnitude of the CLI should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of the degree of growth in economic activity.

Working with over 100 countries, the OECD is a global policy forum that promotes policies to improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world.