ICAC – India Remains Leader in Production, but Global Trade Patterns remain Uncertain

Executive Summary:

 Highlights from the October 2020 Cotton This Month include:

•             Global production has been revised down to 24.6 million tonnes in 2020/21

•             Almost all major producers except for India face lower production estimates

•             The global consumption estimate for 2020/21 remains at 24.3 million tonnes

•             The USA likely will remain the top exporter but trade conflicts with China led the country to increase imports with Brazil

India Remains Leader in Production but Global Trade Patterns Remain Uncertain

Even during one of the most unpredictable and chaotic periods in living memory, some things remain the same — and so it is with cotton. The COVID-19 pandemic, combined with ongoing trade conflicts, has caused a number of changes, some of which might be permanent. But at least a few things likely will be unchanged from last year:

1.           India will be the world’s top producer,

2.           the USA will be the top exporter and

3.           China will be the top consumer.

Most countries will see their production fall in the coming year although India is expected to expand its total to 6.2 million tonnes. The estimate for global consumption remains unchanged at 24.3 million tonnes, with China accounting for about 30 % of that amount. Global trade is forecast at 9.19 million tonnes and, despite China shifting much of its fibre purchases to Brazil, the United States is expected to export 3.18 million tonnes and retain its position as the world’s biggest cotton exporter.

The Secretariat’s current price projection for the year-end 2020/21 average of the A Index is 67.4 U.S. cents per pound this month.

Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on October 15, 2020. The next Cotton This Month will be released on November 2, 2020.

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