Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole.
The CLIs for the United States, Japan, Canada and the euro area as a whole, including France, continue to anticipate stable growth momentum. In Germany and Italy, growth is expected to gain momentum. However, in the United Kingdom the outlook has continued to deteriorate, with stronger signals of easing growth.
Amongst major emerging economies, the CLIs point to signs of growth gaining momentum in the industrial sector in China and to growth firming in Brazil. In Russia and India the assessment remains for stable growth momentum.
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.