Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend six to nine months ahead, continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole.
Stable growth momentum remains the assessment for the United States, Japan, Canada and the euro area as a whole, including France. The CLI continues to point to growth gaining momentum in Italy, and now also in Germany. In the United Kingdom, however the outlook has weakened as signals of easing growth have intensified.
Amongst major emerging economies, the CLIs point to growth firming in Brazil and to signs of growth gaining momentum in the industrial sector in China. Stable growth momentum is anticipated in India and Russia.
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.