Stock building pushes OECD GDP growth up to 0.5 % in the third quarter of 2016

Stock building pushes OECD GDP growth up to 0.5 % in the third quarter of 2016

Real GDP growth in the OECD area accelerated slightly to 0.5 % in the third quarter of 2016, compared with 0.4 % in the previous quarter. Contributions from private consumption and investment slowed to 0.2 and 0.0 percentage point respectively (down from 0.5 and 0.1 in the previous quarter) while net exports and especially stock building drove GDP growth up (0.1 percentage point each in the third quarter of 2016, compared with 0.0 and minus 0.2 respectively in the previous quarter). Contribution from government consumption was stable at 0.1 percentage point for the seventh consecutive quarter

 

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Among most of the Major Seven economies GDP growth accelerated but with quite heterogeneous contributions of the various expenditure categories.

GDP grew strongly in Canada (0.9 %, compared to minus 0.3 % in the previous quarter), mainly as a result of a  marked increase in the contribution of the trade balance (0.4 percentage point, as compared to minus 1.3 in the previous quarter), which together with a slight acceleration in the contribution from private consumption (0.4 percentage point, after 0.3) were only partially offset by the negative contributions from government consumption and investment (minus 0.1 percentage point each, from 0.3 and 0.0 respectively).

In the United States, the acceleration in GDP growth (0.9 %, compared to 0.4 % in the previous quarter) was the result of a pick-up in all contributions, with the exception of private consumption (0.5 percentage point, down from 0.7). The contribution from stock building added a 0.1 percentage point to GDP growth (picking up markedly from minus 0.3 percentage point in the previous quarter), while the other expenditure categories also contributed to economic growth, but to a lesser extent.

In Italy, the slight acceleration of GDP grew (0.3 %, compared with 0.1 % in the previous quarter) was mainly driven by an improvement of the contribution from stock building (0.1 percentage point, from minus 0.2). On the other hand, the contribution from net exports decreased relatively significantly (minus 0.1 percentage point, from 0.3).          

In France, GDP growth turned positive (0.2 %, from minus 0.1 %), driven by significantly increased contribution from stock building (0.6 percentage point, from minus 0.8).This was almost fully offset by a marked deterioration in the contribution of the trade balance (minus 0.6 percentage point, down from 0.5).

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In the United Kingdom GDP growth was stable (at 0.6 %). As in Italy and France, a strongly deteriorating trade balance (minus 1.2 percentage point, down from 0.4 in the previous quarter) was counterbalanced by the positive contribution of stock building (1.2 percentage point, up from minus 0.3).

In Japan, GDP growth slowed (to 0.3 %, down from 0.5 % in the previous quarter), mainly as a result of deteriorating contributions from stock building (minus 0.3 percentage point, from 0.2) and investments (0.0 percentage point, down from 0.4). These negative effects were only partially offset by improving contributions of the trade balance (0.3 percentage point, up from minus 0.1), government consumption (0.1 percentage point, from minus 0.2) and private consumption (0.2 percentage point, from 0.1). 

In Germany, GDP growth slowed to 0.2 % (down from 0.4 % in the previous quarter), as the marked deterioration in the contribution of the trade balance (minus 0.3 percentage point, from 0.5) was not enough to counterbalance the positive effects of the increasing contributions from investments (0.0 percentage point, up from minus 0.3), stock building (0.0 percentage point, up from minus 0.1), and, to a minor extent, the other expenditure categories.

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www.oecd.org


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