Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence scores reflect economic diversity around the world
These are uncertain times and third quarter Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index scores varied dramatically region to region, demonstrating considerable economic diversity around the world. In Asia-Pacific, consumer confidence scores ranged from a high of 133 to a low of 46, with similar divergent scores in Europe (from 107 to 50), Latin America (from 104 to 57) and Africa/Middle East (from 108 to 70). In North America, however, confidence scores were more closely aligned in the U.S. (106) and Canada (97)
Overall, the latest survey showed confidence gains throughout most markets in Asia-Pacific (and no declines from the previous quarter), Latin America and Europe. Conversely, confidence declined in four of six Africa/Middle East markets and in one of two North American markets. Regionally, Asia-Pacific’s score of 109 increased two-points from the second quarter, followed by North America at 105, which declined six points. Confidence in Africa/Middle East fell two points to 87, while confidence in Latin America posted its first upswing this year, with a five-point rise to 83. Europe showed slow consumer confidence momentum: a one-point increase in the second quarter and a two-point rise in the third quarter returned the region to its year-ago score of 81.
“Economic circumstances still vary widely globally, and within regions such as Asia-Pacific. So it is notable that in the Asia-Pacific region, overall consumer confidence has been resilient, as have consumer spending trends,” said Louise Keely, executive vice president, Retail Vertical, Nielsen. “Still, Asia-Pacific is an area to watch: The region’s relatively strong growth is dependent in part on global economic conditions, including those of China.”
Established in 2005, the Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is fielded quarterly in 63 countries to measure the perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances, immediate spending intentions and related economic issues of real consumers around the world. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism, respectively.
Notable global highlights include:
– Global consumer confidence increased one point from the second quarter to a score of 99.
– Confidence gains were seen throughout most measured markets in Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Europe. Meanwhile, confidence decreased in four of six Africa/Middle East markets and in one of two North American markets.
– Five of the world’s top 10 economies posted optimistic scores of 100 or higher: U.S. (106), China (106), U.K. (106), Germany (100) and India (133).
– Concerns about terrorism increased across Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific in the third quarter.
– In Europe, consumer confidence improved in 26 of 34 measured markets from the second quarter. The U.K.’s score increased eight points.
– In Asia-Pacific, confidence increased in 10 of 14 countries, while four markets were flat from the second quarter. Robust improvements came from Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore.
– In Latin America, confidence increased in six of seven markets, including Brazil, which posted its first upswing in two years.
– In the Africa/Middle East region, South Africa posted a solid confidence increase of nine points.
U.S. consumer confidence remained on solid footing in the third quarter with a score of 106, despite a decline of seven points from the second quarter. Confidence in personal-finance sentiment (61 %) and immediate spending intentions (52 %) both declined, a decrease of nine and six percentage points, respectively, from the second quarter.
“Though the U.S. labour market is strong–with employment and wages rising–this is an uncertain time for Americans with the approaching election and continued terrorism concerns,” said Keely. “While consumer confidence has not been severely dented, consumer uncertainty is reflected in in the moderate weakening of discretionary spending intentions.”
The second-quarter online survey was conducted Aug. 10-Sept. 2, 2016. The findings in this survey are based on an online methodology in 63 countries. While an online survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits of existing internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration is still growing, audiences may be younger and more affluent than the general population of that country. Three sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria) utilize a mobile survey methodology and are not included in the global or Middle East/Africa averages discussed throughout this report. In addition, survey responses are based on claimed behaviour, rather than actual metered data. Cultural differences in reporting sentiment are likely factors in the measurement of economic outlook across countries. The reported results do not attempt to control or correct for these differences; therefore, caution should be exercised when comparing across countries and regions, particularly across regional boundaries.
Nielsen Holdings plc is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers Watch and Buy. The Company’s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Nielsen Total Audience measurement services across all devices where content–video, audio and text–is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry’s only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90 % of the world’s population.
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