Composite leading indicators continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole
Stable growth momentum is anticipated in the United States, Japan and Canada as well as the euro area as a whole, particularly in Germany and France. In Italy, the CLI points to weak growth momentum.
Though uncertainty persists about the nature of the agreement the UK will eventually conclude with the EU, the short-term outlook for the United Kingdom remains unchanged from last month’s assessment, with the CLI continuing to point to growth stabilising around a lower rate.
Amongst major emerging economies, stable growth momentum is expected in China while in Russia and Brazil the CLIs continue to point to growth picking up. In India the CLI anticipates firming growth.
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.