Stable growth momentum confirmed in the OECD area but not in most major emerging countries
Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, continue to point to stable growth momentum in the OECD area as a whole.
The CLIs signal stable growth momentum in the Euro area as a whole, particularly in Germany and Italy, while growth is firming in France. Stable growth momentum is also anticipated in Japan. In India, the CLI points to firming growth.
Growth momentum is anticipated to moderate in Canada as well as in the United Kingdom and the United States, albeit from relatively high levels.
On the other hand, the outlook continues to deteriorate for China, with the CLI pointing more strongly to a loss of growth momentum. Signs of slowing growth momentum are also re-emerging in Russia. In Brazil, weak growth momentum is anticipated.
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
An explaining video can be watched by clicking at the following link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY8iPW0GVAo&feature=relmfu