China’s GDP grew 7.7 % in the fourth quarter 2013

China’s GDP grew 7.7 % in the fourth quarter 2013

China’s fabulous growth rates can no longer be achieved, but GDP Gross Domestic Product grew 2013 at 7.7 %, matching the result of 2012. The same figure is also true on an annual basis

Former World Bank President Robert Zoellick met yesterday with high ranking officials from China and stated “China’s leadership has recognised that China needs to change its growth model”. He added: “It will not be a Big Bang process. We will see, in Chinese fashion, a series of steps, which if successful, will pick up momentum.” Zoellick heads now Goldman Sachs’ international advisory board.

7.7 % growth in the fourth quarter and against the same period of 2012 is a bit slower than the 7.8 % posted in the third quarter. That translates into 7.4 % growth on a quarter-to-quarter annualised basis, but China does not report such a figure as other nations casually do.

China’s retail sales 2013 increased 13.1 %, in 2012 the growth rate was 14.3 %.

According to WSJ Wall Street Journal this lower retail figure shows also the toll paid for the anti-corruption rules.

China is looking forward to the pickup of international trade, foremost that the economies of Europe and the USA are improving. The World Bank estimates that world trade growth 4.6 % in 2014, for 2013 the figure was +3.1 %.

It is likely, that China will replace America as the world’s largest trader in 2014. Exports grew in China 7.9 % in 2013 and the figure estimated in 2014 is 8.9 %.

Chinese observers indicate that exports for instance of shoes are picking up, but it is difficult to make a profit, because of higher costs of labour and materials and an appreciating Chinese currency.

On the other hand, the disposable income settled at 7 % in 2013, in 2012 it was 9.6 %.

The sales of cars remained unusually strong in 2013 (+14 %) and the beneficiaries were Ford, GM and BMW.

Industrial production in China slowed in December to 9.7 %, a second monthly decrease in a row.

New property under construction was up 33 % on the fourth quarter, however on consumer level, property sales growth is declining, meaning that developers will start to hold back in the months ahead.

The stock of total social financing (debt) is now twice the size of the Chinese economy, growing by a fifth 2013. GDP, including the effects of inflation, decreased to 9.5 %, and was dropping 18 % in just two years.

www.wsj.com


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