Less extra fine cotton production in ongoing season
The world market for ELS/LS cotton will decrease in the ongoing season because production reductions are expected because of the declining prices. The price ratio between American pima and the Cotlook A Index has stabilised now at 1.63, near the long term average, however the lower values of upland cotton (Cotlook A Index) have tended to boost the ratio
The forecast bei ICAC is indicating that the global production will drop by 29 % to 453000 t. Egyptian production will be down by another 120 % to 105000 t, with extra long staple cotton and long staple cotton production at 10000 respectively 95000 t. The two largest producing countries, the USA and Egypt will account for close to 60 % of the world’s extra-fine production, followed by China with 14 % and India with 13 %. There is a drop of production in China from the previous season of 51 %. Extra-fine cotton is less attractive to Chinese cotton farmers in Xinjiang, because extra fine cotton is not included in China’s state cotton reserve programmes.
Despite the decline in production of 29 %, global consumption of extra fine cotton is expected to decline only by 2 % to 384000 t and India and China will account for 76 % of the world’s extra fine cotton consumption. China’s consumption will remain unchanged at 140000 t, whereas India’s consumption is expected to increase by 1000 t to 155000 t.
Worldwide extra fine cotton export commitments are estimated at 240000 t as of mid-February 2013 or around 91 %. US Pima sales reached 146000 t for the ongoing season or 89 % of projected exports. A year ago at the same time those exports reached 120000 t accounting for 92 % of actual exports for the season.
Export commitments by Egypt in the ongoing season are estimated at 51000 t as of mid-February 2013 or 67 % of projected exports and include 13000 t of carry-over sales from the previous season. In the previous season the exports amounted to 84000 t, including 30000 t of carryovers sales from the previous season.