Hong Kong is to face global headwinds

Hong Kong is to face global headwinds

The first estimates on Hong Kong’s economy for the ongoing year are clearly revised downward and also due to the slowdown already witnessed in the last months of 2011

In 2011 the real GDP Gross Domestic Product value settled at 5.2 % growth and the projection of Hang Seng Bank for the full year 2012 is at 4.0 % growth and at a estimated rate of inflation of 4.5 %. The retail sales will drop from a share of 24 % in 2011 to 14 % in 2012. By contrast exports will slightly increase from 9.8 % to 10.0 % and imports from 10.9 % to 11.5 %. Consumer prices will decrease from 5.3 % to 4.5 %. The unemployment rate will slightly increase from 3.5 % to 3.7 %.

These projections seem to be congruent with the Hong Kong Purchasing Managers index dropping to 48.7 % in November 2011 thus turning to negative estimates.

Also capital inflows to Hong Kong are easing which is an additional negative factor.


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