Highlights from the February 2020 Cotton this Month include:
- The global cotton trade is projected to expand by 2% in the 2019/20 season
- China should remain the world’s top importer at 1.8 million tonnes
- Production expected to decrease in some major producing countries
- The current price projection for the year-end average is 80 cents per pound
Global Trade Expands with Export Growth from Latin America
The global cotton trade is projected to expand by 2% in the 2019/20 season, reaching 9.4 million tonnes. China should remain the world’s top importer at 1.8 million tonnes, although that figure would represent a year-over-year decline of 14%.
Production is expected to decrease in some major producing countries, with Turkey being revised downward to 815000 tonnes and Pakistan to 1.35 million tonnes. As a result, imports will increase for both countries to 818000 tonnes and 967,000 tonnes, respectively.
Latin America should meet some of that additional demand. Brazil’s production is expected to remain high at 2.76 million tonnes and exports are expected to grow by 19 % to 1.7 million tonnes. Argentina also is projected to increase its production to 358000 tonnes, posting a gain of 39 %, while imports are expected to increase by 57 % to 186000 tonnes.
At current estimates of production and consumption, cotton prices should make modest gains through the end of the season. The Secretariat’s current price projection for the year-end average of the Cotlook A Index has been revised to 80 cents per pound.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices. The next Cotton Update will be released on February 14, 2020.
Please refer also to TextileFuture’s USDA detailed cotton reports.