Report Highlights
MY 2019/20 (August to July) area for Senegal, Burkina Faso and Mali is forecast at 1.56 million hectares (HA), a 12 % increase from the previous year on the expectation that strong fixed farm gate prices and low input prices (subsidized by the government) may incentivize farmers to plant more cotton. MY 2019/20 total cotton production for all three countries is projected to increase 17 % from the previous year at 2.83 million 480 lb. bales assuming good weather and low pest pressure. MY 2019/20 total exports are estimated at 2.79 million 480 lb. bales on expectations of strong international demand. This annual report primarily focuses on providing an overview of the cotton sector in Senegal and Burkina Faso. It also includes an abridged analysis for Mali
Executive Summary
This annual report primarily focuses on providing an overview of the cotton sector in Senegal and Burkina Faso. It also includes an abridged analysis for Mali.
MY 2019/20 (August to July) area for Senegal, Burkina Faso and Mali is forecast at 1.56 million hectares (HA), a 12 % increase from the previous year on the expectation that strong fixed farm gate prices and low input prices (subsidized by the government) may incentivize farmers to plant more cotton. MY 2019/20 cotton production for all three countries is projected to increase 17 % from the previous year to 2.83 million 480 lb. bales assuming good weather and low pest pressure. MY 2019/20 total exports are estimated at 2.79 million 480 lb. bales on expectations of strong international demand. MY 2018/19 area and production levels for all three countries are estimated at 1.39 million HA and 2.4 million 480 lb. bales, down from the previous year primarily due to low planted area in Burkina Faso as well as flooding, excessive rainfall, and pest pressure.
For Senegal, in MY 2019/20 cotton area is forecast at 23000 HA, nine % higher on expectations of continued high fixed farm gate prices that may incentivize farmers to plant more cotton. MY 2019/20 production is projected at 38,000 480 lb. bales assuming good weather. MY 2018/19 area and production levels are estimated at 21,000 HA and 29,000 lb. bales based on updated official government data.
For Burkina Faso, in MY 2019/20 area is projected at 800000 HA, up 25 % on the assumption of a robust fixed farm gate price and low fertilizer prices, which may influence farmers to raise planted area. However, if farmer strikes continue, area may remain low like in MY 2018/19. MY 2019/20 cotton production is estimated at 1.395 million 480 lb. bales assuming good weather and low pest pressure. MY 2018/19 area and production levels are estimated down from the previous year due to farmer strikes, lack of rainfall, and pest pressure.
Senegal
Production
Weigh station at SODEFITEX ginning mill, Tambacounda
For MY 2019/20 (August to July) area is forecast at 23,000 HA, ten % higher expectations of continued high fixed farm gate prices that may incentivize farmers to plant more cotton. In general, Senegal has historically maintained its fixed farm gate price for cotton at least at the same level as previous years, or has implemented slight increases. MY 2019/20 production is projected at 38000 480 lb. bales assuming good weather.
MY 2018/19 area and production levels are estimated at 21,000 HA and 29,000 480 lb. bales based on updated official government data. Post sources noted that production was lower than the previous year because of excessive rainfall in August, which reportedly negatively affected yields and cotton quality.
Senegal’s cotton production is completely rain-fed, and is mainly in the southeastern regions of Kolda and Tambacounda. Planting takes place from mid-May to July; harvest is from October to December. According to the National Federation of Cotton Producers (FNPC), increasingly erratic and late rainfall has had a negative impact on yields in recent years.
Consumption and Value-Added Cotton
MY 2019/20 consumption is forecast at 2,000 480 lb. bales, unchanged from last year. Approximately two % of Senegal’s cotton is processed in country to produce yarn, half of which is purchased by Nouvelle Société Textile Sénégalaise (NSTS). According to media sources, 80 % of NSTS’ yarn is exported (mainly to Europe and Morocco); the rest is sold locally to produce traditional fabrics. Senegal’s only ginning company (half of which is owned by the Government of Senegal), Société de Développement et des Fibres Textiles du Sénégal (SODEFITEX), sells cotton seed for animal feed at 140 CFA francs per kg. Cotton waste and short fibers are sold to local companies to produce pillows and cleaning rags.
Trade
MY 2019/20 cotton exports are projected at 36,000 480 lb. bales, 33 % higher than the previous year on expectations of strong international demand and higher exportable supplies. MY 2018/19 exports are projected down to 27,000 480 lb. bales on lower exportable supplies. For the past three years, Bangladesh has purchased over two-thirds of Senegal’s cotton exports (See figure 1).
Figure 1. Senegal: Senegal Exporting More Cotton to Bangladesh (480 lb. bales)
Stocks
MY 2019/20 stocks are forecast at 3,000 480 lb. bales, the same as the previous year. According to contacts, virtually no stocks are stored in country.
Policy
For MY 2018/19, SODEFITEX maintained a high fixed farm gate price of 300 CFA francs per kg in order to try to influence farmers to switch from peanuts to cotton. The fixed farm gate price for cotton was higher than the fixed farm gate price for peanuts (210 CFA francs per kg), as well as prices reportedly offered by peanut exporters, which can be as high as 250 CFA francs per kg.
Burkina Faso
Production
Photo 2. Burkina Faso: Cotton Bolls Attacked by Insects
MY 2019/20 (August to July) area is projected at 800000 HA, up 25 % on the assumption of a robust fixed farm gate price and low fertilizer prices, which may influence farmers to raise planted area. However, if negotiations between the government, ginning mills, and farmers fail (please see the Policy section), farmer strikes could continue, which may result in less planted acreage like in MY 2018/19 (see next paragraph).MY 2019/20 cotton production is estimated at 1.395 million 480 lb. bales assuming good weather and low pest pressure.
MY 2018/19 area remains estimated at 640,000 HA, dropping 25 % from the previous year. This was due to reports of cotton farmers refusing to plant approximately 200,000 HA because the government would not raise the fixed farm gate price or increase the fertilizer subsidy (see Policy section and November 2018 update). An additional 23,000 HA of cotton area was abandoned because of flooding. Production is unchanged at 1.035 million 480 lb. bales due to lack of rainfall and high pest pressure (see November 2018 update).
In 2018/19, many farmers who defaulted on their MY 2017/18 loans (see the 2018 Cotton Annual) switched to other crops such as corn, sorghum, millet, sesame, or sweet potatoes. According to contacts, these crops were mainly grown for subsistence purposes, most of which could not be sold as a cash crop.
Consumption and Value-Added Cotton
MY 2019/20 consumption is forecast at 10,000 480 lb. bales based on expectations of steady local demand. Burkina Faso’s only ginning mill, Filature du Sahel (FILSAH), has the capacity to process 5,000 MT of cotton fiber per year. MY 2018/19 consumption remains unchanged at 10,000 480 lb. bales based on official sources. According to media sources, during the International Show of Cotton and Textiles (SICOT) in late September, 2018, Turkish, Indian and Japanese investors discussed plans to build textile plants, which may begin construction by 2020. SOFITEX reportedly agreed to supply 90000-115000 480 lb. bales of ginned cotton at a fixed negotiated price to one of the plants.
Trade
MY 2019/20 cotton exports are forecast at 1.385 million 480 lb. bales on expectations of higher exportable supplies and strong international demand. MY 2018/19 exports are estimated at 1.025 million 480 lb. bales, a 35 % drop from the previous year, on lower exportable supplies. Cotton fibre is transported to the Port of Abidjan, Benin, or the Port of Dakar by train or trucks. According to contacts, most of these exports go to Asia (e.g. Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Thailand).
Stocks
MY 2019/20 stocks are projected to be unchanged at 10,000 480 lb. bales, the same as the previous year. According to contacts, virtually no stocks remain in country.
Policy
In MY 2018/19 many farmers refused to plant cotton which affected approximately 200,000 HA (please see the November 2018 update) because they reportedly felt that the fixed farm gate price was too low and input prices too high. Farmers reportedly demanded that the Government of Burkina Faso raise the farm gate price to 500 CFA francs per kg for first grade cotton and fix the NPK (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Potassium) price at no more than 11,000 CFA francs per 50 kg. According to media sources, at a stakeholders conference in March, 2019 that included farmers, ginning mills, and the Government of Burkina Faso, the government agreed to forgive 5 billion CFA francs (8.5 million USD) of farmer debt and dedicate 9.6 billion CFA francs (16.5 million USD) to subsidize fertilizer. Contacts noted that a second meeting will occur in April, 2019 that will decide on the fixed farm gate price and fertilizer prices for the next marketing year.
According to a media article, the former president of the National Union of Burkinabe Cotton Producers stated that farmers are urging ginning mills to offer Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton seeds for the next crop season (farmers buy seeds directly from ginning mills and not from the open market). Farmers interviewed for the article stated that they preferred Bt cotton not only because it reduces labor and pesticide costs, but also exposure to pesticides since many farmers cannot afford proper protective gear. Sources believe that some ginning mills are in discussion with a life science company regarding the possible development of a Bt cotton seed variety.
Mali
Production
MY 2019/20 (August to July) area is forecast at 740,000 HA on expectations of continued strong farm gate prices that may affect planting decisions. MY 2019/ 20 production is projected at 1.4 million 480 lb. bales assuming good weather. MY 2018 /19 cotton area and production levels are unchanged at 730,000 HA and 1.350 million 480 lb. bales based on official data and reports of excessive rainfall that affected approximately 30 % of total acreage (please see the November 2018 update).
Consumption and Value-Added Cotton
MY 2019/20 consumption is forecast at 25,000 480 lb. bales, unchanged from the previous year. Only about two % of cotton fibre is processed locally to make artisanal fabrics. Cotton seeds are processed into oil and cakes for human and animal consumption.
Trade
MY 2019/20 exports are forecast at 1.375 million 480 lb. bales, up four % from the previous year on higher available exportable supplies and strong international prices. MY 2018/19 exports remain unchanged at 1.325 million 480 lb. bales. Post sources believe most of these exports go to Asia (e.g. Bangladesh, Vietnam, Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Thailand).
Stocks
MY 2019/20 stocks are projected to be unchanged at 6,000 480 lb. bales, the same as the previous year. According to contacts, virtually no stocks remain in country.
Policy
Because cotton accounts for 15 % of Mali’s annual export earnings and employs over four million people, the Government of Mali supports the sector with subsidized fertilizer, bonuses (a bonus of 15 CFA per kg was paid to farmers in MY 17/18), and subsidized farm equipment (the government pays for half the cost of a tractor). Given the importance of cotton exports for the Malian economy, it is likely that government support will continue into the near future.
