ICAC Cotton Production to Outpace Consumption Despite Extreme Weather Events and Pest Infestations

 

Date Posted: December 15, 2022

Executive Summary

 

Highlights from the December 2022 Cotton This Month include:

  • The 2022/23 global cotton crop has already suffered major losses due to droughts, flooding and pest infestations
  • Despite those issues, consumption is still expected to be lower than production by more than 1.4 million tonnes, at 23 million and 24.2 million tonnes, respectively
  • The Secretariat’s current price forecast ranges from 97.9 cents to 151.5 cents, with a midpoint at 115 cents per pound

Production to Outpace Consumption Despite Extreme Weather Events and Pest Infestations
It’s safe to say the 2022/23 season has gotten off to a difficult start for the cotton industry. On the production side, both the USA and Pakistan were devastated by drought and flooding, respectively, while West Africa faced a severe infestation of jassids. All caused severe damage to the crops.

On the consumption side, fears of a recession still have governments scrambling to control inflation, while the decline in employment in the retail, transportation and warehousing sectors are cause for concern, especially as so many other industries are hiring again.

Currently, the ICAC projects global production at 24.27 million tonnes and consumption at 23 million tonnes.

The Secretariat’s current price forecast of the season-average A index for 2022/23 ranges from 97.9 cents to 151.5 cents, with a midpoint at 115 cents per pound.
Cotton This Month is published at the beginning of the month with the Cotton Update published mid-month. The Cotton Update, which is included in the Cotton This Month subscription, is a mid-month report with updated information on supply/demand estimates and prices.

The next Cotton This Month will be released on 1 February 2023. The next Cotton Update will be released on 15 January 2023.

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Please contact the author, ICAC Data Scientist Matthew Looney, with questions on this report.

About the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
Formed in 1939, the ICAC is an association of cotton producing, consuming and trading countries. It acts as a catalyst for change by helping member countries maintain a healthy world cotton economy; provides transparency to the world cotton market by serving as a clearinghouse for technical information on cotton production; and serves as a forum for discussing cotton issues of international significance. In addition, members can take advantage of the ICAC’s global network of cotton researchers, whose expertise covers the supply chain from farm to textile manufacturing, and have free access to its cutting-edge technologies like the voice-based app and virtual technology cotton training programme. Committed to ensuring cotton’s continued sustainability, the ICAC is the only intergovernmental commodity body covering cotton that is recognised by the United Nations.

www.icac.org